PREVENT Equations Classify 15 Million at Elevated Risk for Heart Failure
MONDAY, Dec. 16, 2024 -- The Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations classify 15.0 million U.S. adults as having an elevated risk for heart failure, according to a research letter published online Dec. 17 in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Jeremy B. Sussman, M.D., from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, and colleagues used data from the combined 2017 to March 2020 cycle of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to identify U.S. adults, aged 30 to 79 years, without known cardiovascular disease at elevated risk for heart failure based on the PREVENT equations. For each adult, the estimated 10-year risk for heart failure and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) was calculated using PREVENT equations. The study population included 4,872 participants, representing 143.2 million Americans.
The researchers found that the mean estimated 10-year risk for heart failure was 3.7 percent; overall, 15.0 million adults were classified as having intermediate or high (elevated) risk for heart failure. Risk varied with age, with 30- to 39-years-olds and 70- to 79-year-olds accounting for 0.3 and 62.4 percent of the elevated risk group, respectively. Across risk categories, racial and ethnic representation was fairly consistent, although Black adults accounted for 9.7 and 14.2 percent of the low- and elevated-risk groups, respectively. There was a correlation seen between risk for heart failure with ASCVD risk (R2 = 0.83); about 4.6 and 0.9 percent of participants were in a higher and lower heart failure risk category versus ASCVD risk category, respectively. Of those with elevated heart failure risk, 54.3 and 55.6 percent had systolic blood pressure above 130 mm Hg and had body mass index above 30 kg/m2, respectively.
"Developing reliable strategies to identify populations at heart failure risk and implement primary heart failure prevention has the potential for dramatic public health impact," the authors write.
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