• All News
• Consumer
• Pro
• New Drugs
• Pipeline
• Clinical Trials
• FDA Alerts

Small Clinical Benefit Seen for Race-Aware Over Unaware Risk Predictions

By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter

Posted on December 2024

Medically reviewed by Carmen Pope, BPharm. Last updated on Dec 4, 2024.

TUESDAY, Dec. 3, 2024 -- The clinical benefit of race-aware over race-unaware disease risk predictions is smaller than expected, according to a study published online Dec. 3 in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

Madison Coots, from Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and colleagues present a decision analytic framework for considering the potential benefits of race-aware over race-unaware risk predictions. A cross-sectional study involving U.S. adults was conducted using cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, and lung cancer as case studies. Race-unaware predictions were generated via statistical marginalization, starting with risk predictions from clinically recommended race-aware models. The utility gains of the race-aware over the race-unaware models were estimated based on a simple utility function assuming constant costs of screening and constant benefit of disease detection.

The researchers found that compared with the race-aware predictions as the benchmark, the race-unaware predictions were substantially miscalibrated across racial and ethnic groups. At the population level, the clinical net benefit of race-aware over race-unaware predictions was smaller than anticipated. This result stemmed from two patterns: (1) 95 percent or more of individuals would receive the same decision across all three diseases, irrespective of whether race and ethnicity are included in the risk model; and (2) the net benefit of screening or treatment was relatively small for those who received different decisions because these patients have disease risks close to the decision threshold. Race-aware models may have a more substantial net benefit when used to inform rationing.

"Our results suggest that race-aware risk models yield smaller gains in net benefit over race-unaware models than the improvement in predictions might suggest," the authors write.

Abstract/Full Text (subscription or payment may be required)

Editorial (subscription or payment may be required)

Disclaimer: Statistical data in medical articles provide general trends and do not pertain to individuals. Individual factors can vary greatly. Always seek personalized medical advice for individual healthcare decisions.

© 2025 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Add as a preferred source on Google

More news resources

• FDA Medwatch Drug Alerts
• Daily MedNews
• News for Health Professionals
• New Drug Approvals
• New Drug Applications
• Drug Shortages
• Clinical Trial Results
• Generic Drug Approvals

Subscribe to our newsletter

Whatever your topic of interest, subscribe to our newsletters to get the best of Drugs.com in your inbox.