Machine Learning May Predict Progression to Serious Mental Illness
WEDNESDAY, Feb. 26, 2025 -- It may be possible to predict diagnostic transition to schizophrenia and bipolar disorder from machine learning models using routine clinical data extracted from electronic health records, according to a study published online Feb. 19 in JAMA Psychiatry.
Lasse Hansen, Ph.D., from Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, and colleagues investigated whether machine learning models using routine clinical data from electronic health records can predict diagnostic progression to schizophrenia or bipolar disorder among patients undergoing treatment in psychiatric services for other mental illness. The analysis included 24,449 patients aged 15 to 60 years with at least two contacts at least three months apart for psychiatric services.
The researchers found that transition to the first occurrence of either schizophrenia or bipolar disorder was predicted by the XGBoost model, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.70 on the training set and 0.64 on the test set. Using a predicted positive rate of 4 percent, the XGBoost model had a sensitivity of 9.3 percent, a specificity of 96.3 percent, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 13.0 percent. Better performance was seen for predicting schizophrenia separately (AUROC, 0.80; sensitivity, 19.4 percent; specificity, 96.3 percent; PPV, 10.8 percent) than for bipolar disorder (AUROC, 0.62; sensitivity, 9.9 percent; specificity, 96.2 percent; PPV, 8.4 percent). Prediction was aided by clinical notes.
"These findings suggest that detecting progression to schizophrenia through machine learning based on routine clinical data is feasible, which may reduce diagnostic delay and duration of untreated illness," the authors write.
Several authors disclosed ties to relevant organizations.
Disclaimer: Statistical data in medical articles provide general trends and do not pertain to individuals. Individual factors can vary greatly. Always seek personalized medical advice for individual healthcare decisions.
© 2025 HealthDay. All rights reserved.
Read this next
Lung Cancer Screening Beneficial to Age 80 for Candidates Fit for Surgery
FRIDAY, Sept. 12, 2025 -- People aged 75 to 80 years at last screen who are diagnosed with screen-detected lung cancer (LC) have lower overall survival, but those undergoing...
Sex Differences Seen in Characteristics, Course of Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder
FRIDAY, Sept. 12, 2025 -- Significant sex differences are seen in the characteristics and course of schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD), according to a study published...
Potentially Inappropriate Medications Linked to Frailty at Cancer Diagnosis
FRIDAY, Sept. 12, 2025 -- For patients with newly diagnosed cancer, an increasing number of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs), as identified by the Geriatric Oncology...
More news resources
- FDA Medwatch Drug Alerts
- Daily MedNews
- News for Health Professionals
- New Drug Approvals
- New Drug Applications
- Drug Shortages
- Clinical Trial Results
- Generic Drug Approvals
Subscribe to our newsletter
Whatever your topic of interest, subscribe to our newsletters to get the best of Drugs.com in your inbox.