Artificial Intelligence Model Predicts Kidney Graft Survival
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
THURSDAY, Oct. 24, 2024 -- The U.K. Deceased Donor Kidney Transplant Outcome Prediction (UK-DTOP) model, developed using advanced artificial intelligence, demonstrates superior calibration and discrimination for predicting kidney graft survival, according to a study published online Oct. 22 in Renal Failure.
Hatem Ali, from University Hospitals of Coventry and Warwickshire in the United Kingdom, and colleagues analyzed data from the U.K. Transplant Registry, including 29,713 transplant cases between 2008 and 2022, to assess the predictive performance of the XGBoost, Random Survival Forest, and Optimal Decision Tree machine learning models.
The researchers found that XGBoost demonstrated exceptional performance, with the highest concordance index (0.74) and an area under the curve consistently above 0.73. Compared with the traditional Kidney Donor Risk Index, which achieved a concordance index of 0.57, the UK-DTOP model exhibited marked improvement. Calibration assessments using the Integrated Brier Score further highlighted the advanced capabilities of the XGBoost model, showing a score of 0.14, indicating precise survival probability predictions. Five distinct clusters were identified based on donor and transplant characteristics using unsupervised learning via k-means clustering; significant survival outcome variations were confirmed across the clusters in further analysis using Bayesian Cox regression.
"Our findings suggest that kidney allocation policies should be updated to include more detailed risk stratification," the authors write. "This could lead to advanced models that better account for donor complexity, improve transplant outcomes, and aid in better decision-making when accepting organ offers."
Disclaimer: Statistical data in medical articles provide general trends and do not pertain to individuals. Individual factors can vary greatly. Always seek personalized medical advice for individual healthcare decisions.
© 2025 HealthDay. All rights reserved.
Posted October 2024
Read this next
Random Forest AI Model Superior for Inpatient Mortality Prognostication in Cirrhosis
THURSDAY, July 24, 2025 -- For inpatients with cirrhosis, a machine learning (ML) model using random forest (RF) analysis is superior for prediction of inpatient mortality...
Inflammation and Nutrition-Based Scores Tied to Prognosis of Low-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome
THURSDAY, July 24, 2025 -- The Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) and systemic oxidative stress (SOS) score are independently associated with poorer prognosis of low-risk...
Few School Principals Report District-Mandated Mental Health Screening
THURSDAY, July 24, 2025 -- Few school principals report district-mandated mental health screening in schools, according to a study published online July 18 in JAMA Network...
More news resources
- FDA Medwatch Drug Alerts
- Daily MedNews
- News for Health Professionals
- New Drug Approvals
- New Drug Applications
- Drug Shortages
- Clinical Trial Results
- Generic Drug Approvals
Subscribe to our newsletter
Whatever your topic of interest, subscribe to our newsletters to get the best of Drugs.com in your inbox.