Too Much Flu Vaccine? Shot Push This Week to Tell
From Associated Press (January 12, 2010)
WASHINGTON_First there was too little swine flu vaccine. Now could
there be way too much?
This week will tell. Get ready for a huge flu-shot push as health
officials try to rekindle interest in protection against this new
influenza strain that, despite plummeting cases, still is
threatening lives _ even as they reassess just how much more
vaccine needs to be shipped.
There's finally plenty of vaccine _ 136 million doses and counting
_ against what scientists call the 2009 H1N1 flu strain. No more
standing in long lines at the health department. CVS drugstores
have so much the chain is touting vaccine in national radio and TV
ads. Competitor Walgreens got more than 50,000 takers in a single
day last week.
Monday, children younger than 10 began rolling up their sleeves for
a second time in Rhode Island schools. The state has attracted
acclaim for vaccinating three-quarters of its students, and now is
starting Round 2 _ the second dose required to protect kids that
young.
And flu-shot drives for all ages are scheduled around the country
for what's officially dubbed National Influenza Vaccination Week _
in hopes of preventing a possible third wave of the epidemic later
this winter.
How much demand this week brings will put the U.S. at a critical
juncture: When is it time to halt the bottling of vaccine, so that
too many unused doses don't go to waste?
Australia's CSL Ltd. revealed Monday that U.S. officials have cut
by more than half the amount it was supposed to ship here, 14
million doses instead of 36 million. The nation's largest suppliers
_ Sanofi-Pasteur, Novartis and MedImmune _ told The Associated
Press that their orders were unchanged so far. But other countries
already are looking to unload leftovers.
U.S. officials say they're deliberately delaying that
decision.
"The danger is in turning off the spigot before we really know what
the winter flu season looks like, what the demand is," Health and
Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told the AP. "As long as
there is demand, the good news is we will have a supply."
More than 60 million people are thought to have been vaccinated so
far, and the U.S. is flush enough that Sebelius said the
long-promised donation of 25 million doses to developing countries
is ready to ship.
Flu vaccine is a balancing act. Every year the nation throws away
millions of leftover shots. They actually last well beyond their
June 30 expiration dates. But because each year's flu vaccine is a
mix of three different strains, with at least one change to the
recipe almost every year, leftovers are destroyed to avoid
confusion.
This year is different. The government ordered 250 million doses of
swine flu vaccine to be made in bulk, but just over half of it to
be put into vials ready to go into people's arms or up their noses.
That was a strategic move, because vaccine stored in bulk lasts far
longer _ meaning leftover bulk antigen could be stored and used as
an ingredient in next fall's flu vaccine if it looks like it will
be needed again.
In fact, nasal-spray vaccine maker MedImmune already has frozen
bulk supplies in anticipation of doing just that.
While U.S. cases have plummeted from a peak in October, one state _
Alabama _ is experiencing widespread infections and the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention says there's still more flu going
around now than is usual for early January, all of it the new
strain. Moreover, the World Health Organization says swine flu is
widespread in much of the world, particularly Egypt and
India.
Because the virus hasn't mutated yet, specialists expect this H1N1
strain to be designated part of next fall's all-in-one vaccine when
regulators meet in February to set the recipe.
The bulk purchasing means "I don't see the U.S. wasting any vaccine
here," says Dr. Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota expert
on pandemic preparations.
But, "we're far from done yet," adds Osterholm, who worries that
people will put off getting a swine flu vaccination unless cases
start to rebound. "If we had to try to put through 20, 30 million
people in a couple of weeks because suddenly the next wave takes
off, it would still be a scramble."
Indeed, in the flu pandemic of 1957, the government gave an
all-clear after a fall wave of disease, only to see deaths increase
again later in the winter.
Still, demand is falling fast. Last week, New York's state health
department had to send two trucks to pick up unused vaccine from
counties with leftovers they couldn't store.
And Sebelius got a mixed reaction when she kicked off vaccination
week Sunday at a prominent Washington church that will hold its own
inoculation clinic next weekend.
"I'm a little leery," said Dellareesa M. Bank of Silver Spring,
Md., who said she's unlikely to be vaccinated at Nineteenth Street
Baptist Church despite her pastor's pledge to be.
But Karyn Sanders of Upper Marlboro, Md., was persuaded.
"It made me say, 'Oh, well, there's still a threat,'" said Sanders,
who plans to bring her two children in for vaccination.
Posted: January 2010
